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Xiaomi Q3 Production Drops to 41.5 Million Units; Destocking and

2026-01-16

According to the latest data from DataTrack, Xiaomi's smartphone production volume in China for the third quarter of 2025 was 41.5 million units, a significant decrease of 7.2% from the previous quarter's 44.7 million units, and a decline of 6.7% compared to the same period last year. Traditionally, the third quarter is the peak production season for the electronics industry to prepare for year-end promotions; however, current data presents a "weak peak season" contraction. This indicates that Xiaomi is undergoing strict inventory control and strategic adjustments at the manufacturing end, rather than aggressively stocking up as in previous years.

Further comparison with market data reveals that IDC noted Xiaomi's global end-market shipments for the quarter were approximately 43.5 million units (up 1.8% YoY). This implies that "China production (41.5M)" was lower than "global shipments (43.5M)" by approximately 2 million units. This gap confirms that the company is in a "Destocking" phase and also reflects that part of the production capacity may be filled by overseas bases such as India or Vietnam to diversify geopolitical supply chain risks.

Regarding the underlying reasons for the decline in production, market institutions generally attribute it to supply chain cost pressures. TrendForce analysis indicates that significant price increases in DRAM and NAND Flash in 2025 led to a surge in smartphone BOM (Bill of Materials) costs, forcing brand manufacturers to adopt more conservative production plans to protect margins. Additionally, Counterpoint mentioned inventory accumulation in certain markets during the first half of the year, leading manufacturers to prioritize clearing old products in Q3 rather than overproducing new models.

Looking ahead, in the short term (1-2 months), benefiting from the strong start of the Q4 "Double 11" and Christmas shopping seasons, Counterpoint data shows a significant rebound in Xiaomi's sales in October, with capacity utilization expected to bounce back slightly. However, the medium-term (3-6 months) outlook remains cautious. TrendForce warns that memory prices may remain high in 2026, coupled with global economic uncertainty. It is estimated that Xiaomi will maintain a steady "defensive" production pace and continue to offset the stagnation in volume growth through a premium product mix.

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