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TCL Smartphone Production in China Falls to New Low of 1.4 Milli

2026-01-16

According to the latest DataTrack data, TCL's smartphone production in China for the third quarter of 2025 was only 1.4 million units (1400 K pcs), down 12.5% from 1.6 million units in the previous quarter and a significant 22.2% decline compared to 1.8 million units in the same period last year. This figure not only fell below the low of 1.5 million units at the end of 2024 but also marked a historical low for this data series since 2011, indicating that TCL's mobile phone manufacturing business is in a period of deep contraction, forming a stark contrast to the boom in 2014 when single-quarter production exceeded 10 million units.

Observing detailed performance, TCL's decline stands in sharp contrast to the global market recovery. Data from IDC and Counterpoint show that global smartphone shipments in the third quarter of 2025 increased by approximately 2.6% to 4% year-on-year, driven primarily by emerging markets and a replacement wave for flagship devices. However, TCL failed to capitalize on this tailwind; its phone manufacturing is overly concentrated in China, facing severe geopolitical headwinds. A Canalys report points out that TCL's shipments in the US market had already plummeted by 23% in the second quarter, which is highly correlated with its supply chain layout.

Market analysis attributes this downturn to structural shifts in the supply chain. According to TCL Central citing data from Canalys, the proportion of "China-assembled" smartphones imported by the US has plummeted from 61% the previous year to 25%, while the share of manufacturing in India has risen significantly. Compared to Motorola or Samsung, which are actively diversifying capacity to India and Vietnam, TCL's manufacturing focus remains stuck in China, causing it to be directly impacted by US policies reducing reliance on China and resulting in a substantial loss of export orders.

Looking ahead, in the short term (1-2 months), although there is demand for year-end holiday stocking, TCL's production lines in China are unlikely to see a significant rebound due to expectations of US tariffs and import restrictions. In the medium term (3-6 months), if TCL cannot accelerate its overseas capacity layout to evade geopolitical risks, its mobile phone business will continue to face the crisis of marginalization. Investors should closely monitor whether the company will downsize its mobile phone business and shift focus to the currently more profitable display panel sector (TCL CSOT).

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