Trend analysis based on the updated indicator.
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According to the latest data, production volume for China's non-mainstream ("Others") smartphone brands in the third quarter of 2025 recorded only 7.23 million units (7,230 K pcs), down 10.1% from the previous quarter's 8.04 million units and dropping 14.7% compared to the 8.47 million units in the same period last year. This not only continues the quarter-over-quarter downward trend seen since the beginning of 2025 (Q1 was 8.38 million units) but also sets a new single-quarter low for recent years. Compared to the boom period of 2017-2018, when single-quarter volumes frequently exceeded 30 million units, current production levels indicate that second and third-tier brands are facing a severe battle for survival.
Examining the market structure, the main reason for the data decline stems from strong squeezing by top-tier brands. According to market research, the Chinese smartphone market is currently highly concentrated, with the top six brands (Vivo, Huawei, Apple, Xiaomi, Oppo, Honor) possessing a combined market share exceeding 90%. Notably, Huawei's strong return in 2025, reclaiming significant market share with its high-end Mate and Pura series, coupled with the inventory stocking effect of Apple's iPhone 17 series at the end of Q3, has left "Others" manufacturers—who lack brand premiums and ecosystem advantages—with almost no foothold in the flagship and mid-to-high-end markets.
In-depth attribution analysis reveals that deteriorating cost structures are another straw breaking the back of small manufacturers. Institutions such as Counterpoint and IDC point out that rising prices for key components like memory in 2025 have forced OEM manufacturers to cut back on low-margin entry-level product lines, which are precisely the primary markets relied upon by many white-label or small brands for survival. Furthermore, government consumption subsidy policies have mostly focused on mainstream major manufacturers with nationwide sales networks, making it difficult for small and medium brands to benefit, thereby further exacerbating the Matthew effect where "the strong get stronger and the weak get weaker."
Looking at the short term (1-2 months), with the arrival of the "Double 11" and year-end promotional peak season in the fourth quarter, overall market shipment volume is expected to rebound; however, mainstream e-commerce platform resources will tilt more towards major brands, making it difficult for second-tier manufacturers to break through, limiting the scope of any production rebound. In the medium term (3-6 months), as AI smartphone functionality becomes the core of competition in 2026, small manufacturers lacking R&D resources to invest in Large Language Model (LLM) integration will face a technological gap. It is expected that production in the "Others" category will remain at low levels or even shrink further in 2026, with some manufacturers likely forced to transform or exit the market.
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