Trend analysis based on the updated indicator.
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Latest data shows that China's smartphone production volume climbed to 14,800.0 thousand units in the first quarter of 2025, a significant leap of 17.5% from 12,600.0 thousand units in the previous quarter. This data not only continues the supply chain's recovery trend but also sets a single-quarter high since 2021 in one fell swoop. While the macroeconomic environment faces headwinds, the actual pace of capacity expansion significantly outperformed previous conservative market estimates.
Observing detailed trends, China's smartphone production has strongly rebounded from the trough of 5,500.0 thousand units at the end of 2021, and fully stabilized above the 12 million unit mark in a single quarter in 2024. The external market contour also echoes this strong rebound; the white-hot high-end competition between Huawei and Apple, coupled with Xiaomi and OPPO breaking through via product portfolio optimization, have all injected substantial order-pulling momentum into the supply chain.
Exploring the main reasons for the robust growth in the first quarter, policy tailwinds and festival effects played an indispensable role. Research institutions such as IDC pointed out that the new round of national smartphone subsidy policies launched by the Chinese government in early 2025 successfully guided the front-loading of demand, driving a replacement wave among value-oriented consumers. In addition, major brands actively stocked up for the peak season of the Lunar New Year, further pushing up overall production scheduling.
Looking ahead, in the short term of 1-2 months, benefiting from stocking up for the upcoming 618 shopping festival, smartphone production volume is expected to maintain a high level, and brands will actively focus on mid-to-high-end models with better profitability. However, the medium-term outlook of 3-6 months is full of challenges. Analytical institutions warn that the costs of key components such as memory are surging significantly; once brands are forced to raise prices to protect gross margins, it may weaken end-market purchasing power, becoming the biggest downside risk in the second half of the year.
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