2026-01-16
vivo Production Hits Turbulence: 2025 Q3 Plunges 15% Below 24 Mi
According to the latest data released by DataTrack, vivo's smartphone production volume in China saw a significant pullback in the third quarter of 2025 (September 30), with single-quarter output at only 23.8 million units (23,800 K pcs). Compared to the 28.2 million units in the previous quarter, the quarter-over-quarter decline reached 15.6%; compared to the 28.6 million units in the same period last year (2024 Q3), the year-over-year decline reached 16.8%. This not only ended vivo's continuous growth trend since the beginning of 2025 but also indicated a rare "sudden freeze" phenomenon on the production side amidst the traditional peak season stocking wave.
Deconstructing the market details, this production correction is closely related to China's macro market environment. Data from IDC and Counterpoint indicate that although new products like the iPhone 17 were released in the third quarter of 2025, overall shipment volume showed a downward trend (YoY -0.6% to -3%). The key reason lies in the national "trade-in" subsidy policy, which stimulated the market in the first half, being exhausted early in some regions. This caused consumer purchasing behavior to turn more rational, forcing brand manufacturers to adopt more prudent inventory control strategies in Q3 and proactively revise down production schedules.
From a competitive landscape perspective, vivo is facing the severe challenge of a "zero-sum game" in a saturated market. Market analysis points out that Huawei, relying on the strong performance of its Pura and Mate series, successfully returned to the top tier of the Chinese market in 2025, even reclaiming the market share lead in some quarters, directly squeezing vivo's share in the mid-to-high-end market. Furthermore, a 36Kr report mentioned that as hardware specification differentiation narrows, the market has entered an "Attrition War" phase. Although vivo has performed steadily in the Y series and iQOO sub-brand, it lacks sufficient growth momentum to offset the competitive pressure in the high-end market.
Looking at the short term (1-2 months), with the arrival of the fourth quarter "Double 11" promotion and the year-end holiday peak season, it is expected that vivo will engage in inventory restocking in conjunction with new model launches (such as the X series iteration), and production volume is expected to rebound. However, medium-term (3-6 months) risks cannot be ignored. Considering the market's general expectation of rising chip costs in early 2026 and the slow recovery of consumer confidence, if vivo cannot establish a deeper moat in AI applications or the high-end foldable phone sector, it fears facing a more intense battle to defend its market share.
Online Search References:
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