2026-01-16
China Smartphone "Others" Brands Q3 Production Forecast to Rise
According to the latest forecast data from DataTrack, the production volume of the Chinese smartphone "Others" category is expected to reach 7.308 million units in September 2026 (Q3), a significant rebound of 14.7% compared to the 6.372 million units in the previous quarter. This data ends the continuous downward trend since the end of 2025, indicating that after experiencing inventory adjustments and the off-season in the first half of the year, the supply chain has begun stocking up for the traditional consumer peak season in the second half. Although the quarterly increase is impressive, when compared with the same period last year (7.23 million units), the year-on-year growth rate is only about 1%, implying that this sector has not seen a structural recovery in demand, but merely a seasonal rebound from a deep fall.
Observing long-term trends, the absolute value of production volume for the "Others" category has shrunk significantly. Compared to the peak in 2017 when quarterly volume exceeded 40 million units, the current production scale has contracted by over 80%. This reflects that the Chinese mobile phone market has entered a highly mature stage of oligopoly, where the combined market share of the top five brands—Huawei, Apple, Vivo, OPPO, and Xiaomi—continues to expand. According to market research statistics, as of the end of 2025, the combined market share of "Others" brands had dropped to around 5%, showing that the survival space for white-label and small manufacturers has been extremely compressed, allowing them to struggle on only in niche or ultra-low-end markets.
Analyzing the underlying causes, the volatile fluctuations in supply chain costs are the biggest headwind facing small and medium-sized brands. Analyses from multiple institutions indicate that memory (DRAM and NAND Flash) prices face a 40% to 50% increase in the first half of 2026, leading to a surge in mobile phone Bill of Materials (BoM) costs. For "Others" brands focusing on the low-end market under $200, their meager profit margins cannot absorb the cost increases, nor can they easily pass them on to price-sensitive consumers. Institutions such as Counterpoint and TrendForce have warned that high component costs will force brands to cut production of low-end models, further accelerating the market reshuffle.
Looking ahead, in the short term (1-2 months), benefiting from the peak season stocking effect in Q3, production volume is expected to remain at a relatively high level of over 7 million units. However, medium-term (3-6 months) risks cannot be ignored. As AI smartphones become the new market focus, major manufacturers are pouring resources into developing edge computing and proprietary ecosystems, making it harder for small and medium-sized brands lacking technical moats and R&D funds to compete. If the upward trend in memory prices continues into the second half of the year, it is expected that the production volume of the "Others" category may face pressure to retest the low point of 6 million units after the peak season, potentially triggering a new wave of market exits.
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