Momentum Weakens After Peaking in Q1; China ODM Server Shipments

China Server "Others" Category Shipment Forecast: Reversal After

Core Overview: Correction Pressure in Q3 After First-Half Excitement According to the latest DataTrack forecast data, shipment momentum for the "Others" category (non-mainstream or specific niche brands) in the China server market will exhibit extreme "start strong, fade later" volatility in 2026. The data column shows that shipments will surge to a historical peak of 53,000 units in the first quarter of 2026, then fall back to 45,000 units in the second quarter, while the latest forecast for the third quarter of 2026 dips further to 41,000 units. This implies that Q3 shipments will not only decline by 8.9% from the previous quarter but also drop by over 22% from the early-year high, indicating that this market segment is entering a distinct correction period following aggressive stocking at the beginning of the year. Key Details: Xinchuang Tenders and Year-End Financial Effects Observing the data details, full-year shipments for 2025 maintain a plateau of 45,000 units, yet significant jumps appear in the fourth quarter of 2025 (51,000 units) and the first quarter of 2026 (53,000 units). This surge aligns highly with the rhythm of the Chinese government and state-owned enterprises executing "Xinchuang" (IT Application Innovation) budgets and procurement tenders typically from year-end to the beginning of the year. However, entering mid-2026, forecast data rapidly cools, with consecutive declines in Q2 and Q3. This indicates that after tender and project-based demands are satisfied, there is a lack of sustained basic buying support, causing shipment volumes to quickly regress to or even fall below the 2025 average levels. Deep Attribution: AI Crowding-Out Effect and the Rise of Custom ASICs Market analysis points out that although the overall server market is booming due to the AI wave, the "Others" category often comprises second-tier brands or white-box assemblies, whose competitiveness is facing a double squeeze. According to reports from TrendForce and IDC, large Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) such as Alibaba Cloud and Tencent are accelerating their shift towards purchasing high-end AI servers equipped with custom ASICs. These orders mostly flow to top-tier ODMs like Quanta and Foxconn, rather than small and medium-sized suppliers in the "Others" category. Furthermore, as AI chip iteration speeds up (e.g., Nvidia updating every six months), a strong wait-and-see atmosphere pervades the second half of the year, causing order visibility for non-core suppliers to weaken significantly in Q3. Outlook and Risks: Short-Term Bullish, Long-Term Bearish; Watch for Inventory Buildup Short-Term (1-2 months): Currently at the forecast high of the first quarter of 2026 (53,000 units), benefiting from the final sprint of fiscal budget execution and localization policies, the relevant supply chain will welcome a golden period for revenue recognition. It is recommended to seize this shipment peak. Medium-Term (3-6 months): Entering the second and third quarters, data clearly warns of consecutive declines. With the conclusion of tenders and the new-old platform transition period (awaiting next-generation AI chips), manufacturers in the "Others" category may face severe inventory adjustment risks. Investors should be vigilant about the demand cliff in the second half and avoid second-tier hardware stocks that lack support from high-end AI server orders. Web Search Reference Sources https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFCDhIqH79opg6o7ndyhQpB_a-ZYX9VC30J9hBy_yY5ZmESgO7sLqVaNCBwHjPubRJxs29PFy57IlxvLw6u3cjdr_eCNH9EgbM6AvUOQqQFAMTIqL64bMA3ez4lmrCWPmx_cM1rUTAX1X4A7mWD https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHrVVJ3Zsp88jdmGkJxCBwxB-kGc7RouiFePXIG1LyLRPs5CjTD88evqYThYlCZNXpkp9YuyrHSVaouvsZDt8ByYdvFArzO3VIkcXvhM5biMpcplKhgVnx7ofnmL1wCqh7I https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHywbCnkAbsbwX9tykf5vra1LCZ63DxXJbNgpxdV2vX0pRUIp18TM8y2a-L8_7ZkjU-xcYq0Ltb56gSkSV9QaymuNpFNm8_qPnq7-_F9fuUF09exlED9F6FVkA1drMCmwck1Prq-VL4HbPMsmzNSF4WzLMX2HDgAqn4mA==