Huawei Server Shipments Bottom Out and Rebound: Q3 Forecast Up 1

xFusion x86 Server Shipment Forecast Faces Headwinds, Bottoming

Core Overview: Shipments Slide Quarter by Quarter, Hitting Multi-Year Lows According to the latest DataTrack forecast data, x86 server shipments for Chinese server giant xFusion are estimated to fall to 75,000 units (75.0 K pcs) in the third quarter of 2026. This figure not only represents a 3.8% decline from the previous quarter's 78,000 units but also a significant year-on-year decrease of 16.7% compared to the same period in 2025 (90,000 units). The current shipment level is far below the stable period average of approximately 100,000 units seen between 2023 and 2024, indicating significantly weakened momentum for this product line. Key Details: Halved from Historical Peak Reviewing historical data, xFusion x86 shipments reached a historical peak of 140,000 units in mid-2022. Although they maintained a high level of 100,000 to 110,000 units from 2024 through the first half of 2025, the trend took a sharp downturn entering 2026. The forecast for Q1 2026 is 85,000 units, followed by sequential declines (Q2 78k -> Q3 75k). This clear downward curve suggests the general-purpose server market is undergoing a structural demand correction. Deep Attribution: Dual Effects of AI Budget Crowding-out and IPO Transformation Market analysis indicates that the primary reason for xFusion's shipment decline is not a decline in corporate competitiveness, but a structural shift in global server budgets. According to information from Reuters and TrendForce, xFusion initiated IPO tutoring in early 2026 and has seen strong revenue in the AI server sector. However, enterprise IT capital expenditure has shifted significantly toward high-unit-price AI computing units, crowding out procurement budgets for traditional general-purpose x86 servers (Budget Crowding-out). Additionally, China's promotion of "Xinchuang" policies may drive some government procurement toward non-x86 architectures (such as ARM or domestic CPUs), further compressing the shipment space for pure x86 models. Outlook and Risks: Short-term Inventory Adjustment, Mid-term Focus on High-Value Transformation Short-term (1-2 months): The supply chain is expected to continue digesting general-purpose server inventory built up in 2025. A V-shaped reversal in shipments is unlikely, and data suggests a bottoming out between 75,000 and 80,000 units. Medium-term (3-6 months): As xFusion advances its IPO process, its product portfolio will accelerate its transformation toward high-margin liquid cooling and AI racks. While this is bullish for revenue, x86 shipments calculated by "unit count" are likely to remain low or even be revised slightly downward. Investors should focus on the company's market share growth in the AI server sector rather than solely focusing on the decline in total x86 volume. Web Search Reference Sources https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEe_jQ-tbEPO5m6BSJ7X31roFXB7hgg6lTnCYni4qyB3SL2a43bVUYeZGGjQ6ROHjUtR_2fm-HrEbGFaQdsfZ1TM4fCzyXTg1PMI5tztF5KSz-Olhbpvnmj6mMPIE-4GAFt0G0-XDUe_lFmD2wZ-sqYWc9_SBbXslqV4M035uypKkKOPmKUw8X9prxNBnuxoZFJd_NRvUon1PmcFO5X32BXY7pw03VKGkeEJlNHzp0Xct2ntqX9KE2lW2evqZj3hrXIK3MW8jPXog== https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFlWKgVntugKfDz0rUITdQU8kXwJliIrRKdDt548RWOx27D1ycSaGxvMX5-Ke52IwhzL5hPVP8Bh82JPqL7VOxtPZGmzx-lBAgRQCmSU3k9OOg_E0Mg3DpQyPAl5GEwdYNXqdo9J_lQnauRcAgLxX-DnbRVhgWyOmdp7Q==