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Sugon Q3 Server Shipment Forecast Drops to 50,000 Units; Hygon M

By AI Insights

2026-01-16

Trend analysis based on the updated indicator. View the Indicator→

According to the latest DataTrack data, Sugon's server shipment forecast for the third quarter of 2026 is 50,000 units, a decrease of 11,000 units from the 61,000 units in the second quarter, representing a quarter-over-quarter decline of 18%. Despite the significant correction, this figure is completely flat compared to the same period in 2025, indicating that 50,000 units is a solid support level during the off-peak season. Reviewing data from the past three years, Sugon's shipment performance exhibits a regular seasonal characteristic of "surging in Q2, falling back in Q3, and rebounding in Q4," which is mainly constrained by the procurement budget execution cycles of the Chinese government and state-owned enterprises (G/SOE), as the acceptance of large-scale tenders is mostly concentrated at the end of the year.

Beyond the figures, core details show that "localization" and "liquid cooling technology" are key pillars of its resilience. According to TrendForce and market analysis, global AI server shipments are estimated to grow by over 20% in 2026, and the penetration rate of liquid cooling is expected to reach 47%. As the leader in Chinese liquid-cooled servers, Sugon is benefiting from the rigid demand for high-density heat dissipation in data centers. Furthermore, the recent market focus is on the strategic integration (Merger) between Sugon and Hygon Information (Hygon). This move aims to build a "chip-to-system" vertically integrated ecosystem to counter the tightening of US export controls.

In-depth attribution analysis shows that institutional views generally regard the Q3 forecast decline as merely a seasonal adjustment of short-term inventory and order delivery. Investment banks point out that as China accelerates the "Eastern Data, Western Computing" project and the upgrading of the IT Application Innovation (Xinchuang) industry, Sugon, possessing autonomous chip supply capabilities (Hygon DCU/CPU), will continue to expand its market share in the public sector and AI computing power centers. The deep binding between Hygon and Sugon makes it one of the few manufacturers capable of providing full-stack autonomous solutions from underlying chips to complete systems, building a strong competitive moat.

Looking ahead, in the short term (1-2 months), the market will continue to digest the off-peak season effects and the transition period of supply chain integration; investors should pay attention to the specific contribution of the merger progress to operational efficiency. In the medium term (3-6 months), based on historical trajectories, there is a very high probability that fourth-quarter shipments will rebound to over 60,000 units. If AI server projects ramp up volume as scheduled, it will be the main catalyst driving full-year revenue to exceed expectations. Potential risks include the further expansion of US sanctions on high-end AI chips and fluctuations in the capital expenditure of major domestic cloud service providers.

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