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China's 2025 Primary Industry Output Value Climbs to 35.16 Trill

By AI Insights

2026-01-20

Trend analysis based on the updated indicator. View the Indicator→

According to the latest data from DataTrack, China's primary industry (agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery) output value for 2025 as of November reached 3,516 billion RMB, growing approximately 3.3% compared to 3,405 billion RMB in the same period of 2024. The key highlight of this data lies in a "V-shaped reversal": looking back at the observed value as of August (2,688.9 billion), there was actually a slight decline compared to the same period of the previous year (2,707.3 billion), indicating that agricultural production faced severe challenges in the third quarter. However, as autumn harvest data came in, positive growth was ultimately maintained for the year, showing that the output contribution in the fourth quarter was critical, successfully filling the output gap from mid-year.

In-depth analysis of the reasons for data fluctuations reveals that extreme weather was the main cause of the stagnation in Q3 output value. In the summer of 2025, China faced a complex weather pattern of "South Flood, North Drought." High temperatures and drought in the Huang-Huai-Hai region and floods in the Yangtze River basin severely interfered with the summer grain harvest and autumn grain sowing progress, leading to a rare year-on-year decline in the cumulative data for August. Fortunately, after entering autumn, the climate stabilized, and the government increased the deployment of funds for agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation, ensuring that autumn grain, which accounts for over 70% of the annual grain output, ultimately achieved a bumper harvest, driving a significant jump in the November data.

In terms of sub-industries, adjustments in the hog farming industry also played an important role. After capacity reduction and price sluggishness in 2024, supply and demand in the hog market tended toward balance in 2025. Analytical institutions point out that although hog slaughter volume decreased slightly due to reduced inventory, benefiting from prices rebounding above the break-even point and falling feed costs, the output value contribution of the breeding industry remained relatively robust, offsetting part of the impact of weather damage on the planting industry. In addition, the continuous advancement of high-standard farmland construction and seed industry revitalization actions has also improved the overall disaster resilience of agriculture.

Looking ahead to the short term (1-2 months), as the Spring Festival approaches, demand for agricultural products will enter a traditional peak season. It is expected that vegetable, fruit, and meat prices will show seasonal increases, further supporting primary industry output value. For the medium term (3-6 months), the focus will shift to spring plowing and preparation work for 2026. Considering the climate uncertainty that the La Niña phenomenon may bring, official policies are expected to focus more on "food security" and "yield improvement," with continued increases in investment in agricultural infrastructure. Related agricultural machinery and seed sectors are worth watching.

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