Trend analysis based on the updated indicator.
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According to the latest data, China's total import and export value in 2024 reached 438,468.0 billion RMB, growing by about 5% compared to 417,568.3 billion RMB in 2023. This consecutively crossed two trillion-level marks and set a new historical high. Particularly in the fourth quarter, the export growth rate for the single month of December significantly outperformed market consensus expectations, delivering a stellar performance for the year's foreign trade.
Observing the detailed performance, total exports for 2024 reached 25.45 trillion RMB (YoY increase of 7.1%), and imports were 18.39 trillion RMB (YoY increase of 2.3%), with the trade surplus expanding to 7.06 trillion RMB. Among them, the export of mechanical and electrical products increased by 8.7% YoY, accounting for nearly 60% of total exports. In addition, the export volume of electric vehicles exceeded 2 million units for the first time, indicating that emerging industries have become an important backbone supporting foreign trade.
Exploring the driving factors behind this data surge, institutions such as Reuters and Bloomberg pointed out that the package of incremental policies rolled out by Chinese authorities in late September indeed played a bottom-supporting role. However, the core reason lies in U.S. President-elect Trump preparing to take office and threatening to impose additional tariffs, prompting a large number of enterprises and buyers to choose early shipments to avoid potential high tariff costs, thereby forming a clear "front-loading exports" effect.
Looking ahead, in the short term (1-2 months), benefiting from U.S. importers continuously hoarding goods before tariff hikes, the "front-loading exports" momentum is expected to continue supporting China's foreign trade to remain robust. But in the medium term (3-6 months), if the U.S. officially implements the 60% tariff threat, the export growth rate could face the risk of a sharp decline. By then, whether the authorities will allow the RMB to depreciate, or accelerate the expansion of emerging markets such as ASEAN and the "Belt and Road" to hedge against the impact, will be the major focus of market attention.
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