China's Primary Industry GDP YoY Growth Climbs to 4.2%, Driven b

China's Tertiary Industry GDP Breaks 21.59 Trillion RMB, Service

Core Overview: Service Sector Output Hits Record High, Withstanding External Headwinds According to the latest DataTrack data, China's tertiary industry (service sector) GDP reached 215,948 billion RMB in November 2025. This not only represents an increase of approximately 6.56% from the previous quarter's 202,641 billion (driven by seasonal factors) but also sets a record high for this data series. Compared to 204,081 billion in the same period of 2024, the year-on-year increase is approximately 5.8%. Against the backdrop of China's full-year GDP growth of 5% in 2025, the robust performance of the service sector successfully offset the pressure from the slowdown in real estate and parts of the manufacturing sector, establishing its status as the "stabilizer" of economic transition. Key Details: Dual Engines of Digital Services and Daily Consumption An in-depth structural analysis reveals that traditional real estate services remain burdened by declining investment (full-year real estate development investment fell by 17.2%), but the modern service sector performed remarkably. According to market data, the Information Transmission, Software, and Information Technology Services sector saw a year-on-year growth rate as high as 11.1%, becoming the fastest-growing segment; Leasing and Business Services also grew by 10.3%. Furthermore, service retail sales grew by 5.5%, faster than the overall retail growth rate, indicating that the resident consumption structure is accelerating its shift from "tangible goods" to "intangible services," with healthcare, elderly care, and cultural tourism consumption becoming new highlights. In-depth Attribution: Policy Guidance and Structural Transformation Analysts point out that this wave of growth is mainly attributed to the spillover effects of the "Two New" policies (large-scale equipment renewals and trade-ins of consumer goods), as well as the government's targeted credit support for the service sector. Both the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China and the World Bank believe that with rising per capita income, the upgrading of consumption patterns is an inevitable trend. Experts analyze that despite external tariff pressure from the US, the domestic "silver economy" and "digital transformation" have unleashed immense domestic demand potential, filling the gap left by traditional infrastructure investment. Outlook and Risks: Spring Festival in the Short Term, Trade War Defense in the Medium Term Short-term (1-2 months): As the Spring Festival holiday in early 2026 approaches, ice and snow tourism and homecoming consumption are expected to further boost data for contact-intensive service sectors such as catering, transportation, and entertainment. The service sector PMI in the first quarter is expected to remain in the expansionary territory. Medium-term (3-6 months): Risks primarily stem from the external environment. With global trade protectionism heating up in 2026, if manufacturing exports are hindered, it may affect demand for related logistics and business services. In addition, whether structural contradictions in the employment market (such as the youth unemployment rate) can be alleviated will determine the endurance of service consumption. Web Reference Sources https://www.gov.cn/zhengce/202504/content_6945032.htm https://tradingeconomics.com/china/gdp-growth-annual https://www.mysteel.net/news/all/5049586-nbs-chinas-2025-gdp-rises-5-q4-growth-slower-at-45