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ASUS Confirms Stopping New Model Development in 2026; Q3 Product

2026-01-16

Core Overview: Production Rebound is Actually a Curtain Call

According to the latest DataTrack forecast, ASUS smartphone global production volume is expected to reach 80.0 K pcs (80,000 units) in the third quarter of 2026, a growth of 33.3% compared to the second quarter's 60.0 K pcs. Despite the data showing quarterly growth, compared to the scale of 6 million units in a single quarter in 2015, the current production is only 1.3% of its peak period. This slight increase should be interpreted as the last batch of stocking for "final generation models" like the ROG Phone 9 or Zenfone 12 Ultra, rather than a signal of business rejuvenation.

Key Details: Pulse-style Production Reflects Discontinuation Rhythm

Observing data from the last two years, the ASUS mobile phone production line has shown extremely unstable "pulse-style" characteristics. Production in the third quarter of 2025 once dropped to 0.0 K pcs, then surged to 90.0 K pcs in the fourth quarter. Such extreme fluctuations usually appear during inventory replenishment or component clearance stages before the end of a product life cycle. Entering 2026, the low-water production level of 50,000 to 80,000 units per quarter further confirms that the supply chain has stopped continuous production, shifting to an "intermittent" operation solely to satisfy after-sales repair and specific channel demands.

Deep Attribution: Succumbing to Costs and the AI Transformation Wave

The end of ASUS's mobile phone business stems from a major shift in group strategy. According to foreign media reports such as Digitimes and Tech Advisor, ASUS Chairman Jonney Shih confirmed at the year-end party in January 2026 that they will "no longer add new mobile phone models" and announced that R&D resources will be fully transferred to "Physical AI," robotics, and commercial PC fields. Analysis points out that mobile revenue accounts for only 1%, and facing the double pressure of soaring memory costs and squeezing by major manufacturers, ASUS was prompted to cut its losses to survive, ending its 23-year mobile marathon.

Outlook and Risks: Short-term Inventory Clearance, Long-term Value Drops to Zero

Short-term (1-2 months): With the official confirmation of discontinuation, the market is expected to see "last chance buying" or clearance promotions for the ROG Phone and Zenfone series, driving a small wave of shipments in mid-2026. Medium-term (3-6 months): Investors should completely remove expectations of revenue contribution from the mobile phone business to ASUS. As production may return to zero by the end of 2026, ASUS will transform into a pure AI hardware and PC brand, and market valuation will focus on its monetization ability in new tracks such as AI servers and smart glasses.

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