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Inspur Forecast: 2026 Q3 Server Shipments Rebound to 250,000 Uni

2026-01-16

According to DataTrack's latest forecast data, Inspur's server shipments for the third quarter (Q3) of 2026 are estimated at 250,000 units (250.0 K pcs), a significant growth of 12.1% compared to the 223,000 units in the second quarter. Compared to the same period in 2025, shipments maintained the level of 250,000 units (0% YoY), indicating that after experiencing seasonal adjustments or supply chain fluctuations in the second quarter, shipment momentum has returned to a stable track. Although the overall volume has not returned to the historical high of 350,000 units per single quarter in 2021-2022, this reflects the structural trend of the market focus shifting from general-purpose servers to high-unit-price AI servers.

Detailed analysis shows that the key to this quarterly rebound lies in the initiation of the replacement cycle for general-purpose servers and the continuous delivery of AI projects. TrendForce points out that global server shipments are estimated to grow by approximately 12.8% in 2026, with the annual growth rate of AI servers expected to exceed 20% to 28%. As the leading server manufacturer in China, Inspur is benefiting from the procurement demand of Chinese CSPs (Cloud Service Providers) for domestic AI chips and compliant NVIDIA chips (such as H20), which offsets the impact of weak demand for some traditional servers.

In-depth attribution analysis suggests that the low point in the second quarter (223,000 units) may have been constrained by supply chain bottlenecks. According to supply chain surveys by Digitimes and TrendForce, demand for HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) is estimated to surge by 70% in 2026. Coupled with tight capacity in advanced packaging and PCB, this may have caused shipment delays for some high-end models. As the supply chain gradually smooths out in the second half of the year, and with the penetration rate of liquid cooling technology estimated to reach 47% in 2026, the improved delivery capability of high-end racks has become the main driver for the Q3 rebound.

Looking ahead, in the short term (1-2 months), shipments are expected to remain stable in the range of 250,000 to 260,000 units, benefiting from budget execution before the end of the year and the volume ramp-up of new platforms (such as the NVIDIA Blackwell series and CSP self-developed chips). In the medium term (3-6 months), close attention must be paid to geopolitical risks, especially potential tightening of US export controls on AI chips, and the pressure on gross margins from rising HBM prices. However, with the acceleration of China's local AI computing infrastructure construction, Inspur is expected to maintain long-term support under the trend of domestic substitution.

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