China's Construction GDP Sees Rare Decline, Falling to 8.64 Tril

China's Industrial GDP Climbs to 41.68 Trillion RMB; 2.8% Nomina

Core Overview: Output Hits New Highs, but Nominal and Real Growth Decouple Severely In 2025, China's industrial (secondary industry) GDP reached 416,826 hundred million RMB, a growth of approximately 2.8% compared to 405,442 hundred million in 2024, rewriting historical highs for consecutive years. However, contrasting with the 5.9% "real" growth rate in industrial value added pointed out by official and market institutions (such as Xinhua and Global Times), the nominal increase (2.8%) in the Data Series significantly lags behind. This divergence of "strong real, weak nominal" performance directly confirms that the industrial sector is deeply mired in the deflationary predicament of "exchanging price for volume," where enterprises are not obtaining proportional revenue growth despite substantial capacity expansion. Key Details: New Quality Productive Forces Shine, Old Economic Momentum Dull Structural differentiation is the main theme of 2025 industrial data. Search data indicates that, benefiting from technological autonomy policies, the value added of high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing grew by 9.4% and 9.2% respectively, far above the average level. Notably, production of New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) surged by 25.1%, and industrial robots grew by 28%, becoming the locomotives supporting industrial production. Conversely, dragged down by shrinking real estate investment, demand for traditional building materials industries such as cement and glass remains weak. Coupled with the PPI (Producer Price Index) remaining negative throughout the year (approximately -2.6%), this has significantly eroded the nominal output contribution of traditional industrial sectors. Deep Attribution: Supply-Side Overheating and Price Involution Analysis institutions point out that the "bloated" nature of the industrial data stems from policy tilting excessively toward the supply side. The government has supported capacity expansion of the "New Three" through subsidies and credit, leading to supply growth rates that far exceed the digestive capacity of domestic demand and exports, thereby triggering intense price wars (Involution). Analysis by Deloitte and other institutions emphasizes that although export resilience has alleviated some pressure, the slow recovery of domestic consumption prevents manufacturing from passing on costs, forming a structural dilemma of "vigorous output but pressured profit margins." Outlook and Risks: Transformation Pains Under the Shadow of Trade War Looking at the short term (1-2 months), affected by the Spring Festival off-season effect in early 2026, industrial activity is expected to show a seasonal pullback; the focus of observation lies on order visibility after work resumes post-holiday. In the medium term (3-6 months), the greatest risk comes from the deterioration of the external trade environment, particularly as the new U.S. administration (Trump 2.0) may impose additional tariffs on Chinese high-tech and green energy products, threatening to further compress export profit margins. At that time, if domestic demand stimulus policies cannot take over in a timely manner, the industrial sector may face even more severe pressure regarding destocking and deflation. Web Search Reference Sources https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGWvFVf33vZQzXPKSO2kt8OK_bEX8v6eCom4gMrzuXPBcuWrT_AzaIHhI0ZVmI0rSzEGPoWTkDEaBy3TtDhf70068ASmX5iLtj3n2mYkI9t5GYYDUw_aCE4TXVQYVUZIO7LrfiRtBoePITm2EPTaf8E4q7_nnEt8j4qHMMrSPMGME5eng== https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGy3BzebN2m-j3uGfzIBZ3UDbvpZs2_hg3DMGgajDdgBas6Qudd1XVZa_Yal3mANFDLatd9o23LPW8PoBn_eNK6sK_tefDVXlkBtGYqjTE2EdLLUaDJOIwAJ6fV4uf3QTetM6W1FowqLGS-y2VX5V8= https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQF6T0rf9otZDE3AckzR5whzl07dHY5b-iUANzr0YdhhT7oReCSznEhxTvj3utg-ZyIpam__vOoEOgkVQoO-727u9JgiLiSxRBEJcIlgjaQddxxtA7dtzShviBQhGDpie5mbiyymdMMBR11Lj9dFABEkyvTgFn74hXgpoeoKObVeKzmD1T6qwCF1OWibp3kFvqHoEQbodazc6uyO