Wholesale and Retail Output Value Breaks 14.5 Trillion RMB, Onli

China's Transportation and Warehousing Output Surpasses 6.2 Tril

Core Overview: Output Tops 6.2 Trillion with Steady Growth According to the latest data from DataTrack, the gross output value of China's "Transportation, Warehousing and Postal Industry" in 2025 reached 6,209.2 billion RMB, an increase of about 4.8% from 5,923.22 billion RMB in 2024. This not only marks the first time the industry's output has surpassed the 6.2 trillion mark but also continues the trend of steady post-pandemic recovery. Despite challenges from macroeconomic transformation, the logistics industry, acting as the "vascular system" of the real economy, has demonstrated resilience superior to overall GDP growth under the dual support of domestic consumption and manufacturing upgrades. Key Details: Express Volume Eyes 200 Billion, Freight Structure Optimized In the sub-sectors, the postal express industry performed most impressively. Market data shows that China's express delivery volume in 2025 is poised to break through or approach 200 billion parcels (compared to 174.5 billion parcels in 2024), with a daily average processing volume exceeding 500 million parcels, maintaining a double-digit annual growth rate. In addition, commercial freight volume is expected to exceed 59 billion tons, with the share of railway and waterway freight increasing. This indicates that the adjustment of the transportation structure toward "road-to-rail" and "road-to-water" is accelerating, effectively alleviating cost pressures on road transport. In-depth Attribution: Policy Dividends and Technological Cost Reduction Behind this wave of growth, policy guidance has played a critical role. The "Action Plan for Effectively Reducing Total Social Logistics Costs" issued by authorities set a target to reduce the ratio of total logistics costs to GDP to 13.5% by 2027 (approximately 14.1% in 2024), prompting enterprises to accelerate digital transformation. Institutional analysis points out that the widespread application of drone delivery (low-altitude economy), autonomous driving trucks, and smart logistics hubs has significantly improved warehouse turnover rates and last-mile delivery efficiency, becoming the primary means to offset rising fuel and labor costs. Outlook and Risks: Spring Festival Effect and Price War Concerns Short-term (1-2 months): Affected by the Spring Festival holiday in early 2026, the logistics index is expected to see a seasonal decline. However, with the release of stocking demand for the "New Year Shopping Festival," freight rates in January are expected to receive temporary support. Attention should be paid to potential labor shortages in the early stages of work resumption after the holiday, which may lead to last-mile delivery delays. Medium-term (3-6 months): The focus in the first half of the year lies on whether price competition within the industry eases. Although demand is strongly supported by cross-border e-commerce (such as Southeast Asian and Latin American markets), domestic revenue per express parcel remains low. If leading enterprises continue to use "price-for-volume" strategies to seize market share, it may compress overall industry profits and trigger a new wave of M&A and consolidation. Web Search References https://www.gov.cn/zhengce/202411/content_6989932.htm https://www.gov.cn/yaowen/liebiao/202501/content_7015092.htm https://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202501/09/WS677f240fa31051fa6a246830.html