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China's Financial Sector GDP Returns to the 10 Trillion Mark, Re

By AI Insights

2026-01-20

Trend analysis based on the updated indicator. View the Indicator→

According to the latest data from DataTrack, the value-added of China's financial sector recorded 101,337 billion RMB in 2025, not only an increase of approximately 2.8% compared to 98,544.2 billion RMB in 2024 but also surpassing the previous peak in 2023 (100,677 billion RMB) in one fell swoop, officially returning to the "10 Trillion Club." This indicates that after undergoing a year of structural adjustments, the total scale of China's financial sector has been fully repaired and has reached a historical high, demonstrating strong resilience and rebound momentum.

Observing the data trend, the financial sector presents a significant "V-shaped reversal." After climbing to the 10 trillion peak in 2023, values rarely fell by about 2.1% in 2024 due to regulatory policies aimed at "squeezing out moisture" and governing idle funds (preventing funds from circulating solely within the financial system without entering the real economy). However, the data quickly turned positive in 2025, with an annual output value increase of nearly 280 billion RMB, showing that the base effect from the optimization of financial statistics has faded, and the industry itself has once again become a key force supporting the achievement of the 5% GDP target.

Investigating the main reasons for the rebound, the market generally believes it is related to the shift toward loose monetary policy and the warming of capital markets. Institutional analysis points out that in 2025, with the implementation of multiple RRR cuts and interest rate reductions, a recovery in stock market trading volume, and increased issuance of special sovereign bonds, the value-added repair of the securities and banking sectors was directly driven. In addition, according to reports from institutions such as BOC Research and Deloitte, the increase in credit placement and the proportion of direct financing (bonds, equity) in the second half of 2025 also provided substantial support for the expansion of financial sector output value.

Looking ahead, in the short term (1-2 months), benefiting from the "strong start" in credit and liquidity injection at the beginning of the year, financial sector output value is expected to remain at a high level; however, in the medium term (3-6 months), high attention must be paid to the risk of continued narrowing of the banking sector's net interest margin (NIM). Although the total volume has hit a new high, institutions such as Morningstar warn that bank NIM in 2025 may be compressed by as much as 18 basis points, which will limit the slope of profit growth for financial institutions. Investors should pay attention to whether policy will further guide deposit interest rates downward to alleviate pressure.

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