China's "Other Services" Output Value Exceeds 24.6 Trillion RMB,

China's 2025 Industrial GDP Grows 5.8% YoY, Reaching New Recent

Core Overview: Industrial Production Continues Recovery Trend According to the latest DataTrack data, China's 2025 industrial GDP year-on-year growth rate recorded 5.8%, slightly better than the 5.7% in 2024 and significantly higher than the 4.2% in 2023, indicating that the industrial sector has emerged from the post-pandemic trough (3.4% in 2022) with a steady recovery curve. Although the overall economy faces headwinds from shrinking real estate investment, industrial production has demonstrated resilience through a "volume compensating for price" strategy under strong policy guidance. Full-year growth remained steady in a high range, becoming a key pillar supporting the achievement of the 5% GDP target. Key Details: Divergence Between High-Tech Manufacturing and Real Estate Investment Breaking down the data further, structural divergence within the industry is extremely significant. According to market information and official statistics, high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing performed brilliantly, with year-on-year growth rates reaching 9.4% and 9.2% respectively, significantly outperforming the overall industrial growth rate. Regarding specific products, the output of New Energy Vehicles (NEV) and industrial robots surged by 25.1% and 28% respectively, reflecting the effectiveness of industrial upgrading. Conversely, traditional high-energy-consuming industries and real estate-related chains remain suppressed. Real estate development investment declined sharply by approximately 17.2% for the full year, and upstream demand for cement and steel continued to be weak, forming a dual-track pattern of "hot advanced manufacturing, cold real estate construction." In-Depth Attribution: New Quality Productive Forces and Export Resilience Institutional analysis points out that the strength of the 2025 industrial data is mainly attributed to the "new quality productive forces" strategy actively promoted by Beijing authorities, directing resources toward strategic emerging industries through fiscal subsidies and credit support. Furthermore, despite facing tariff barriers from Europe and the US, China's export sector demonstrated unexpected resilience, with export growth to ASEAN and "Global South" countries offsetting part of the demand decline in developed markets. Global Times and various analysts believe that the strong expansion of manufacturing investment filled the gap left by consumption and real estate, making the industrial sector the "ballast stone" of economic growth. Outlook and Risks: Structural Transformation Under the Shadow of Trade War Short-term (1-2 months): Industrial production momentum is expected to maintain inertia. The return of the December manufacturing PMI to the expansionary zone (50.1) indicates some restoration of confidence, and stocking demand before the Lunar New Year is expected to support performance in the early first quarter. Medium-term (3-6 months): Looking ahead to 2026, the market generally expects GDP growth to slow to around 4.5%. The main risks lie in the deterioration of the external trade environment (such as potential tariffs imposed by the new US administration) and price competition caused by domestic overcapacity (PPI deflationary pressure). If domestic consumption cannot effectively take over the baton, the growth model driven solely by manufacturing investment will face the challenge of diminishing marginal returns. Web Reference Sources https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202501/t20250117_1958869.html https://www.gov.cn/lianbo/bumen/202411/content_6987654.htm https://cn.reuters.com/markets/china/china-dec-industrial-output-retail-sales-2025-01-17/