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China's 2025 Total Imports Hit New High of 18.48 Trillion RMB, 0

By AI Insights

2026-01-20

Trend analysis based on the updated indicator. View the Indicator→

According to DataTrack and the latest official data, China's total RMB-denominated imports for the full year of 2025 reached 18.4795 trillion yuan (18.48 trillion), a slight increase of 0.47% compared to 18.39 trillion in 2024. Although the figure sets a new historical record, the growth momentum has significantly slowed compared to the previous year, showing an overall "plateau phase" of sideways consolidation. This reflects that under "stable growth" policies, the strength of domestic demand recovery is still constrained by structural factors, with the flat import value mainly influenced by the interaction of falling commodity prices (Price Effect) and exchange rate factors.

Observing key sub-sectors, the import structure presents a distinct divergence of "hot tech, cold traditional industries." Benefiting from supply chain autonomy and strategic technology reserves, imports of integrated circuits (IC) and automatic data processing equipment maintained growth, indicating that demand for high-end manufacturing persists. However, traditional consumer and industrial goods face challenges; in particular, automobile import volume suffered a significant decline of approximately 40% due to the strong rise of domestic New Energy Vehicles (EVs). Additionally, commodities such as crude oil and iron ore showed a pattern of "volume rise and price drop"; while strategic stockpiling pushed up import "volume" (e.g., crude oil import volume hit a record), falling international prices resulted in a limited contribution to the overall import "value."

Regarding this data trend, institutions such as Goldman Sachs and ING analyze that the slowdown in China's import growth is mainly attributed to the prolonged adjustment in the real estate market, leading to weak derived demand for capital goods like steel and building materials. At the same time, domestic consumer confidence has not fully recovered, suppressing import demand for discretionary consumer goods. However, facing geopolitical uncertainty, enterprises have maintained strategic inventory restocking of key raw materials and core components, which serves as the key foundation supporting import data from falling into negative growth.

Looking ahead, in the short term (1-2 months), import data may experience seasonal fluctuations due to the Lunar New Year factor, requiring attention to post-holiday business resumption and inventory cycle changes. In the medium term (3-6 months), as global trade environment variables increase for 2026 (such as potential tariff barriers), the market may see a new wave of "front-loading" imports, particularly in advanced equipment and critical raw materials. The IMF and market consensus estimate China's GDP growth in 2026 to be approximately 4.5% to 4.8%; if domestic demand stimulus policies can further transmit to the consumer side, import growth is expected to stage a moderate recovery off a low base.

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