2025-12-27
China's Industrial Enterprise Revenue Rose Only 1% in First 11 Months; November Saw Rare 3% Negative Growth
According to the latest data, from January to November 2025, the cumulative operating revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size in China was 139 trillion 198.06 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of only 1.04%. Compared to the 1.51% increase in the first 10 months, the growth magnitude narrowed further. Notably, breaking down the monthly performance, revenue for November alone was approximately 13.86 trillion RMB, a decline of about 3.0% compared to 14.29 trillion RMB in the same period last year. Following sluggish revenue growth in October, this is a clear signal of negative monthly growth, reflecting that industrial activity in the fourth quarter faces severe challenges of "increasing volume but falling prices."
In terms of detailed performance, industrial divergence is like "fire and ice." According to market and official information, high-tech manufacturing and the electronics industry remain the main supports. Benefiting from the "AI Plus" action plan, revenue from special electronics equipment and communication devices maintained double-digit growth. However, traditional raw material sectors performed weakly, especially coal mining, non-metallic mineral products, and chemical raw materials industries. Affected by overcapacity and price wars, both revenue and profits were under pressure, becoming the main causes dragging down the overall data.
Regarding this data pullback, analysts generally attribute it to persistent PPI (Producer Price Index) deflationary pressure and slow recovery of domestic demand. Institutions point out that although export orders still provide support, the adjustment in the domestic real estate market continues to suppress demand for building materials and related industrial products. Additionally, some sectors are trapped in fierce "involution-style" price competition, resulting in companies having sales volume but difficulty in expanding revenue. Investment banks such as Goldman Sachs have also warned that industrial deflation risks may extend into 2026, and it remains to be seen whether policies can effectively boost end-consumption.
Looking ahead, in the short term (1-2 months), the market generally expects December data to rebound. Benefiting from year-end festival stocking demand and the low base effect from the same period last year, coupled with the gradual implementation of recent official stable growth policies, industrial revenue is expected to stabilize by year-end. Analysts estimate that December profits may even see a rebound of over 5%.
In the medium term (3-6 months), as a new round of fiscal stimulus and monetary easing policies take effect in 2026, industrial revenue is expected to show a moderate recovery pattern of "low start, high finish." However, structural risks remain; if the property market fails to stop falling or external trade friction intensifies, the destocking pressure in traditional manufacturing will remain the biggest concern for the first half of next year. Investors should continue to monitor the timing of PPI turning positive as a key indicator for judging substantial improvement in corporate profitability.
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