Datatrack - Blog

2025-01-23

表格測試

為什麼 CPI 對經濟很重要？用途與影響消費者物價指數（CPI）反映物價變化，最直接影響每個人的「購買力」，當 CPI 上升時，代表物價上漲，相同的金額能買到的東西變少，假設去年一個便當 80 元，今年的 CPI 增加 5%，那便當可能漲到利率決策考量指數變化考量通膨目標升息若核心 CPI 持續上升，央行可能提高利率以應對通膨壓力若核心 CPI 超過目標，央行可能會升息以抑制通膨降息若核心 CPI 增長緩慢或下降，央行可能降息以刺激經濟增長若核心 CPI 低於目標，央行可能降息以刺激經濟增長消費者物價指數（CPI）反映物價變化，最直接影響每個人的「購買力」，當 CPI 上升時，代表物價上漲，相同的金額能買到的東西變少，假設去年一個便當 80 元，今年的 CPI 增加 5%。消費者物價指數（CPI）反映物價變化，最直接影響每個人的「購買力」，當 CPI 上升時，代表物價上漲，相同的金額能買到的東西變少，假設去年一個便當 80 元，今年的 CPI 增加 5%，那便當可能漲到 84 元，我們的購買力也因此下降了。追蹤更多總經指標追蹤更多總經指標追蹤更多總經指標消費者物價指數（CPI）反映物價變化，最直接影響每個人的「購買力」，當 CPI 上升時，代表物價上漲，相同的金額能買到的東西變少，假設去年一個便當 80 元，今年的 CPI 增加 5%，那便當可能漲到 84 元，我們的購買力也因此下降了。追蹤更多總經指標追蹤更多總經指標追蹤更多總經指標消費者物價指數（CPI）反映物價變化，最直接影響每個人的「購買力」，當 CPI 上升時，代表物價上漲，相同的金額能買到的東西變少，假設去年一個便當 80 元，今年的 CPI 增加 5%，那便當可能漲到 84 元，我們的購買力也因此下降了。 Read More at Datatrack 消費者物價指數（CPI）反映物價變化，最直接影響每個人的「購買力」，當 CPI 上升時，代表物價上漲，相同的金額能買到的東西變少，假設去年一個便當 80 元，今年的 CPI 增加 5%，那便當可能漲到

By simonhsu

2025-01-16

美國應屆畢業生與所有大學生失業率差距達1990年代新高

紐約聯邦儲備銀行在近期公布的數據顯示，9月份應屆畢業大學生的失業率與擁有大學學位的失業率的差距擴大至2.8%，而這個數字是自1990年代以來的歷史高點（撇除疫情期間），同時也暗示著這些應屆畢業生正持續面臨著求職的寒冬。 (應屆畢業生和所有大學畢業生的失業率差距來到自1990年以來新高。來源: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, TrendForce) 自今年年中以來，市場開始意識到美國的就業市場可能準備從放緩轉向惡化。其中，最引人注目的就是失業率在6月時攀升至近3年高點，並且已快觸發預示著經濟衰退的「薩姆法則」。 (可以用於預測經濟衰退的薩姆法則已快被觸發。來源: Fred, TrendForce) 此外，自2022年中以來，職位的空缺率不斷下滑，使「貝弗里奇曲線」的斜率逐漸轉向平坦，也讓市場擔憂未來是否開始要出現空缺率下降減慢，但失業率卻不斷飆升的現象。 (貝弗里奇曲線已快要走向平坦階段。 Source: BLS, TrendForce) 而這次應屆畢業生難以找到工作的現象可能主要還是反映出企業對於初階人才的需求已大量減少。在疫情結束的初期，由於市場需求的快速釋放，使當時的企業需要透過大量的徵才以應對激增的需求。但隨著聯準會在近幾年透過大量的升息來抑止通膨，企業開始面臨收入成長放緩以及支出增加的困境，迫使大量的企業透過裁員的方式來縮減當時過度朝聘的人員。根據BLS公布的數據來看，儘管近幾年的裁員人數尚未回到疫情前的水準，但裁員風險的增加已經削弱了在職員工的安全感，進一步降低他們透過自主離職尋找更好工作的意願。而這也導致企業工作職位的流動性下降，使應屆畢業生更難找到理想或合適的工作。 Read more at Datatrack 而聯準會也是有意識到事態的嚴重性，因此在今年7月底的會議中，聯準會就已明確的表示就業市場已經放緩，並且在9月的會議正式宣布降息50個基點以支稱就業市場。時隔數月，失業率已從7月的4.3%高峰逐步下滑至4.1%，非農就業人數也維持在溫和成長的水位。此外，初領失業救濟金人數的上升趨勢也已中斷，種種跡象都讓市場對勞動市場惡化的擔憂不斷減少。整體而言，我們認為這個現象更像是一個美國勞動市場趨於平衡的證據。然而，單靠這個數據可能沒有辦法判斷美國未來的就業市場能否為持平衡或出現惡化，未來仍須緊密觀察如初領人數、非農就業人數、裁員人數（率）等指標來判斷就業市場的狀況。

By simonhsu

2025-01-15

How Economic Changes Shape Wealth Distribution?

Since the dawn of human civilization, wealth inequality has been a central issue within societal structures. Despite technological advancements and sustained economic growth driving global prosperity, wealth remains concentrated in the hands of a few, creating a vast disparity compared to the resources held by the majority. Underlying this phenomenon, changes in the economic environment play a critical role. Factors such as asset price fluctuations, inflation, and central bank monetary policies significantly influence the distribution of wealth across households. To provide deeper insights into how macroeconomic factors impact wealth distribution, we examine findings from the European Central Bank’s "Distributional Wealth Accounts for euro area households" report, which highlights the critical role of economic conditions in shaping wealth inequality. Wealth Distribution and Composition in the Euro Area The report reveals stark disparities in wealth distribution across the euro area. According to the data, the wealthiest 10% of households own 56% of the region’s net wealth, while households with wealth below the median hold only 5% of the total. (Source: ECB) A closer examination of net wealth composition shows that as wealth increases, the share of deposits and real estate decreases. Instead, the wealthiest households derive a significant portion of their net wealth from business assets (non-financial business assets and unlisted equity) and financial assets (such as stocks, mutual funds, or insurance products). This composition suggests that wealthier households are generally better positioned to take on greater financial risks compared to less affluent households. (Source: ECB) The Role of Asset Price Fluctuations Differences in asset composition mean that price fluctuations significantly influence wealth distribution. The report indicates that households below the median are more sensitive to changes in housing prices. For these households, wealth is predominantly tied to real estate, which is highly sensitive to interest rate movements. Therefore, shifts in the market or changes in monetary policy—whether tightening or easing—directly affect their net wealth. For example, when housing prices increase by 10%, the net wealth of households below the median can rise by over 10%, while the wealthiest 10% see an increase of only around 5%, as real estate constitutes a smaller share of their overall wealth. (Source: ECB) In contrast, stock price fluctuations disproportionately benefit the wealthiest households. With a larger portion of their wealth held in financial assets, these households are better positioned to capitalize on stock market gains. Data shows that a 10% increase in stock prices leads to a 1.5% to 2% increase in the net wealth of the wealthiest households, while households below the median see almost no benefit. (Source: ECB) Inflation and Monetary Policy’s Indirect Effects on Wealth Distribution Beyond asset prices, inflation and monetary policy indirectly influence wealth distribution. During the pandemic in 2021, all household groups experienced a decline in net wealth, though the decline was smallest for households below the median. This period of rising inflation reduced the real value of liabilities for households below the median, with the reduction in liabilities outpacing the decline in real asset values. As a result, these households saw a net increase in wealth. However, as central banks raised policy rates to curb inflation, the subsequent decline in stock and real estate valuations reduced net wealth across all groups. The impact was more pronounced for lower-income households due to declining real estate prices, while the wealthiest households were more affected by falling financial asset values. (Source: ECB) In summary, wealth inequality primarily stems from differences in the composition of assets and liabilities across households. Net wealth fluctuations are often driven by changes in asset prices, particularly benefiting households with more financial assets. Inflation and monetary policy, rather than directly altering wealth distribution, primarily act as intermediaries by influencing asset price movements. Reference Introducing the Distributional Wealth Accounts for euro area households

By simonhsu

2025-01-15

Key Focus This Week: U.S. CPI & China GDP

Last week, U.S. stock sectors experienced fluctuations, but the strong performance of large-cap technology stocks propelled the S&P 500 Index to a new record high, closing at 6,090.27 points. In the bond market, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield continued its weakening trend, retreating further to around 4.15%, while the U.S. Dollar Index fluctuated and ultimately settled near 106. Key Economic Data Review for Last Week U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI: The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for November was 48.4 (previous: 46.5). This increase was primarily driven by improvements in new orders (50.8, previous: 47.1), production (46.8, previous: 46.2), and inventories (48.1, previous: 42.6), reflecting a partial recovery in demand following the conclusion of the presidential election. However, the customer inventories index edged up slightly to 48.1 (previous: 46.8), indicating that end-user demand remains subdued. Read more at Datatrack U.S. ISM Services PMI: The U.S. ISM Services PMI fell to 52.1 in November (previous: 56.0), marking its lowest level in three months. The decline was mainly attributable to drops in the business activity index (53.7, previous: 57.2) and the new orders index (53.7, previous: 57.4), influenced by uncertainty surrounding future tariff policies and cabinet changes under former President Trump. Additionally, the employment index also declined to 51.3 (previous: 53.0), aligning with signs of a slowing labor market. Read more at Datatrack U.S. November Employment Situation: November's employment data presented mixed results. Nonfarm payrolls, based on the establishment survey, rebounded to 227,000 (previous: 12,000), driven by notable job gains in education and healthcare (79,000) and government employment (33,000). Leisure and hospitality (53,000) and manufacturing (22,000) also recovered significantly after disruptions from hurricanes and strikes. However, the unemployment rate, based on the household survey, edged up to 4.2% (previous: 4.1%), while the labor force participation rate fell to 62.6% (previous: 62.7%), reflecting an increase in the unemployed population. Although JOLTs data suggests the labor market remains in a state of low hiring and low layoffs, vulnerabilities are becoming increasingly apparent, warranting close monitoring. Read more at Datatrack Key Economic Data for This Week Australia Interest Rate Decision (12/10): Despite a significant decline in inflation and slowing economic growth, Australia's labor market remains robust, and inflation has not yet returned to the Reserve Bank of Australia's target range of 2-3%. Consequently, markets expect the RBA to maintain interest rates unchanged, citing potential upside inflation risks, with the first rate cut anticipated in Q1-Q2 of 2025. Read more at Datatrack U.S. CPI (12/11): The U.S. CPI for October rose due to low base effects in Q4 and seasonal demand from holiday shopping. Markets expect this trend to continue in November. According to data from the Cleveland Federal Reserve, November CPI is projected at 2.70% (previous: 2.58%), while core CPI is forecast to remain at 3.30% (previous: 3.30%). Read more at Datatrack Eurozone Interest Rate Decision (12/12): Given the Eurozone's persistently weak economic performance, with both manufacturing and services sectors in contraction, markets expect the European Central Bank to implement another 25-basis-point rate cut at this meeting and potentially lower rates by a total of 100 basis points in 2025. Read more at Datatrack

By simonhsu

2025-01-15

Euro Area:Weak Demand and Political Instability Deepen Contraction

Japan November Real average household consumption for two-or-more-person households decreased by 0.4% year-on-year (previous -1.3%), marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline, according to Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications on January 10. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) officially ended its negative interest rate policy in March last year, citing the emergence of a virtuous cycle between wage growth and price increases. However, amid a weakening yen and rising inflation driven by the removal of energy subsidies, consumers are still compressing their spending under cost pressures, preventing a significant recovery in consumption expenditure. While November wage data showed nominal wages rising by 3.0% year-on-year, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous month and marking the largest increase in over 30 years, inflation continued to outpace wage growth. Real wages declined by 0.3% year-on-year (previous -0.4%), also marking the fourth consecutive monthly decrease. Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda stated at the December post-meeting press conference that the timing of the next rate hike would depend on the results of the preliminary shunto wage negotiations in March-April and changes in U.S. economic policies. This statement was interpreted by markets as an indication that the BOJ is likely to delay its next rate hike until March. However, the BOJ’s quarterly report released on January 9 highlighted that labor shortages and minimum wage increases are progressively spreading the importance of wage growth across businesses of all sizes and industries. This suggests that the BOJ may already see sustained wage growth potential ahead of March. Overall, The BOJ faces a difficult choice: raising rates earlier could help temper inflation and guide it toward moderate growth, but with wage increases still uncertain, it risks further pressuring already weak consumption. On the other hand, delaying rate hikes could allow inflation to rise further, eroding consumers’ wage gains and real purchasing power. These conflicting factors create significant uncertainty over whether the BOJ will opt for a rate hike in January or March. Read more at Datatrack

By simonhsu

2025-01-15

U.S. December Services PMI Rebound, Price Index Hits Two-Year High

With only two weeks remaining until President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House, market concerns over his potential tariff policies continue to intensify. However, the latest U.S. services PMI data indicates that demand remains resilient, with uncertainty surrounding Trump’s policies prompting early demand release, driving increases in new orders and business activity indices. The U.S. December services PMI stood at 54.0 (prior: 52.1), marking six consecutive months of expansion, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported on January 7, and it exceeding market expectations of 53.5. Among the sub-indices, the business activity index rose to 58.2 (prior: 53.7), while the new orders index climbed to 54.2 (prior: 53.7), both ending a two-month decline. This rebound reflects not only the underlying strength of demand but also seasonal year-end factors and uncertainty over Trump’s tariff policies, which spurred early demand. The supplier delivery time index returned to expansion at 52.5 (prior: 49.5), driven not only by the aforementioned factors but also by renewed labor negotiations at U.S. ports on January 7, which further delayed delivery times. The employment index dipped slightly to 51.4 (prior: 51.5) but remained in expansion territory, highlighting the continued robustness of the services labor market. This aligns with the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTs) data released the same day, which showed job openings rising to 8.098 million in November, an increase of 259,000 from the prior month. Professional and business services (+273,000) and finance and insurance (+105,000) contributed most significantly to the increase. In other sub-indices, the price index surged to 64.4 (prior: 58.2), marking the 91st consecutive month of expansion. This reflects strong services demand driving both input costs and sales prices higher. However, the sharp rise in prices suggests that easing service sector inflation may be more challenging, adding to the Federal Reserve’s cautiousness in future rate cut decisions. Overall, as Trump’s return to the White House approaches, uncertainty over tariff policies has prompted early demand release, boosting the indices for business activity, new orders, and supplier delivery times. As the services sector accounts for nearly 80% of U.S. GDP, its strong performance capped a robust fourth quarter of economic growth. Nevertheless, with downside economic risks diminishing and service sector inflationary pressures rising, market expectations for the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady in January have strengthened further. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of maintaining rates unchanged has risen to 95.2%. In response, the S&P 500 index dropped 1.1%, while the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.68%, nearing the critical 4.7% threshold. Read more at Datatrack

By simonhsu

2025-01-15

Manufacturing PMI Recap: US, China, EU, Japan & Korea (Latest)

Key manufacturing data from major economies, including the U.S., China, Japan, and the Eurozone, revealed continued divergence in global manufacturing performance in December. While U.S. demand showed signs of recovery with new orders and production returning to expansion, the Eurozone remained mired in contraction due to weak demand and heightened political uncertainty. In Asia, China maintained expansion for the third consecutive month, supported by policy measures, though internal demand stimulation remained limited. Meanwhile, Japan showed optimism for the future despite sustained contraction, and South Korea returned to contraction as both domestic and external demand weakened. United States: Demand Rebounds, but Industry Divergence Persists The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for December rose to 49.3 (prior: 48.4), marking the ninth consecutive month in contraction but also the highest reading in nine months. Sub-indices revealed encouraging trends, with the new orders index climbing to 52.5 (prior: 50.4) and the production index returning to expansion at 50.3 (prior: 46.8). The supplier delivery index also improved to 50.1 (prior: 48.7). Inventory levels rose slightly, with the inventory index at 48.8 (prior: 48.3), while the new orders-to-inventory ratio widened to 5.8 (prior: 1.9), indicating an overall improvement in demand. However, demand conditions varied significantly across industries. While strong demand in computers, electronics, and electrical equipment offset weaknesses in food, transportation equipment, and fabricated metals, the overall recovery momentum remained uneven. Read more at Datatrack Euro Area: Weak Demand and Political Instability Deepen Contraction The Eurozone's December Markit PMI stood at 45.1 (previous 45.2), reflecting further deterioration in new orders and production. The production index posted its largest decline since October 2023, while inventories were depleted at an accelerating pace without signs of replenishment. Employment contraction eased slightly but remained significant, and stagnant input prices led firms to lower output prices further to stay competitive. Germany: The December Markit PMI dropped to 42.5 (prior: 43.0), with political instability and concerns over U.S. tariff policies exacerbating contractions in new orders and production, both hitting their largest declines in 2024. Employment and backlogs also fell amid weakening demand. France: The Markit PMI fell to 41.9 (prior: 43.1), the lowest since May 2020, as political uncertainty following government instability further dampened demand. Companies accelerated inventory reductions, resulting in the steepest decline since 2009, while production and new orders continued to contract. Business confidence remained subdued. Italy: The Markit PMI edged up to 46.2 (prior: 45.5), reflecting weak Eurozone demand alongside high energy costs and intensified competition in the automotive sector. Firms continued to deplete inventories despite modest cost growth, while weak demand pushed output prices lower. Read more at Datatrack China: Third Consecutive Month of Expansion, but Limited Policy Impact on Domestic Demand China’s Manufacturing PMI for December registered at 50.1 (prior 50.3), maintaining expansion for the third straight month but slightly below market expectations of 50.3. Sub-indices showed continued growth in production (52.1, previous 52.4) and new orders (51.0, previous 50.8), driven by policies promoting consumer goods trade-ins and industrial equipment upgrades. However, employment (48.2, prior 48.1) remained in contraction, and the new orders-to-customer inventory ratio fell to 3.1 (prior 3.4), reflecting limited effectiveness of stimulus measures in boosting internal demand. Increased market competition and overcapacity led to further declines in input prices (48.2, prior 49.8) and output prices (46.7, prior 47.7), sustaining deflationary risks. Read more at Datatrack ▶ Read More China's Manufacturing PMI Expands for the Third Consecutive Month in December Japan: Sixth Consecutive Month of Contraction, but Optimism Persists Japan’s December Manufacturing PMI was 49.6 (prior: 49.0), marking six consecutive months of contraction as new orders and production continued to shrink. Despite this, employment growth reached its highest level since April 2024. However, declining backlogs and ongoing inventory reductions indicated persistent demand weakness. The yen's depreciation further pushed up input costs, prompting firms to pass on higher prices to customers, resulting in the fastest output price growth in five months. Nonetheless, businesses remained optimistic about future production expansion, particularly in the automotive and semiconductor sectors. Read more at Datatrack South Korea: Weak Demand and Record Low Business Confidence South Korea’s December Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0 (prior: 50.6), reflecting weaker domestic conditions and slowing demand from the U.S. and China. New orders and production declined further, while export orders showed only modest growth. Inflationary pressures intensified, and firms raised output prices at the fastest rate since November 2023. Beyond economic challenges, uncertainty over U.S. tariff policies heightened concerns for South Korea’s manufacturing sector. Business confidence for the next 12 months turned negative for the first time since July 2020. Excluding the COVID-19 period, it was the lowest level recorded since the survey began in 2012. Global manufacturing in December continued to show pronounced divergence. In the U.S., manufacturing remained in contraction for the ninth month, but production and new orders returned to expansion, signaling initial signs of a demand rebound. However, industry-specific disparities highlighted uneven recovery momentum. In contrast, the Eurozone faced deepening contraction driven by weak demand and political uncertainty, with Germany, France, and Italy remaining the hardest-hit regions. Meanwhile, China sustained its expansion for the third month, but internal demand stimulation remained limited. Japan exhibited resilience in business sentiment despite prolonged contraction, while South Korea faced mounting challenges with weakened demand and record-low business confidence.

By simonhsu

2025-01-15

Key Focus This Week: U.S. CPI & China GDP

Table of Contents Key Economic Data Review for Last WeekKey Economic Data for This Week Last week, U.S. stock sectors experienced fluctuations, but the strong performance of large-cap technology stocks propelled the S&P 500 Index to a new record high, closing at 6,090.27 points. In the bond market, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield continued its weakening trend, retreating further to around 4.15%, while the U.S. Dollar Index fluctuated and ultimately settled near 106. Key Economic Data Review for Last Week U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI: The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for November was 48.4 (previous: 46.5). This increase was primarily driven by improvements in new orders (50.8, previous: 47.1), production (46.8, previous: 46.2), and inventories (48.1, previous: 42.6), reflecting a partial recovery in demand following the conclusion of the presidential election. However, the customer inventories index edged up slightly to 48.1 (previous: 46.8), indicating that end-user demand remains subdued. Read more at Datatrack U.S. ISM Services PMI: The U.S. ISM Services PMI fell to 52.1 in November (previous: 56.0), marking its lowest level in three months. The decline was mainly attributable to drops in the business activity index (53.7, previous: 57.2) and the new orders index (53.7, previous: 57.4), influenced by uncertainty surrounding future tariff policies and cabinet changes under former President Trump. Additionally, the employment index also declined to 51.3 (previous: 53.0), aligning with signs of a slowing labor market. Read more at Datatrack U.S. November Employment Situation: November's employment data presented mixed results. Nonfarm payrolls, based on the establishment survey, rebounded to 227,000 (previous: 12,000), driven by notable job gains in education and healthcare (79,000) and government employment (33,000). Leisure and hospitality (53,000) and manufacturing (22,000) also recovered significantly after disruptions from hurricanes and strikes. However, the unemployment rate, based on the household survey, edged up to 4.2% (previous: 4.1%), while the labor force participation rate fell to 62.6% (previous: 62.7%), reflecting an increase in the unemployed population. Although JOLTs data suggests the labor market remains in a state of low hiring and low layoffs, vulnerabilities are becoming increasingly apparent, warranting close monitoring. Read more at Datatrack Key Economic Data for This Week Australia Interest Rate Decision (12/10): Despite a significant decline in inflation and slowing economic growth, Australia's labor market remains robust, and inflation has not yet returned to the Reserve Bank of Australia's target range of 2-3%. Consequently, markets expect the RBA to maintain interest rates unchanged, citing potential upside inflation risks, with the first rate cut anticipated in Q1-Q2 of 2025. Read more at Datatrack U.S. CPI (12/11): The U.S. CPI for October rose due to low base effects in Q4 and seasonal demand from holiday shopping. Markets expect this trend to continue in November. According to data from the Cleveland Federal Reserve, November CPI is projected at 2.70% (previous: 2.58%), while core CPI is forecast to remain at 3.30% (previous: 3.30%). Read more at Datatrack Eurozone Interest Rate Decision (12/12): Given the Eurozone's persistently weak economic performance, with both manufacturing and services sectors in contraction, markets expect the European Central Bank to implement another 25-basis-point rate cut at this meeting and potentially lower rates by a total of 100 basis points in 2025. Read more at Datatrack

By simonhsu

2025-01-15

Japan’s Real Households Spending Declines for Four Consecutive Months, Highlighting BOJ’s Rate Hike Dilemma

Japan November Real average household consumption for two-or-more-person households decreased by 0.4% year-on-year (previous -1.3%), marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline, according to Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications on January 10. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) officially ended its negative interest rate policy in March last year, citing the emergence of a virtuous cycle between wage growth and price increases. However, amid a weakening yen and rising inflation driven by the removal of energy subsidies, consumers are still compressing their spending under cost pressures, preventing a significant recovery in consumption expenditure. While November wage data showed nominal wages rising by 3.0% year-on-year, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous month and marking the largest increase in over 30 years, inflation continued to outpace wage growth. Real wages declined by 0.3% year-on-year (previous -0.4%), also marking the fourth consecutive monthly decrease. Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda stated at the December post-meeting press conference that the timing of the next rate hike would depend on the results of the preliminary shunto wage negotiations in March-April and changes in U.S. economic policies. This statement was interpreted by markets as an indication that the BOJ is likely to delay its next rate hike until March. However, the BOJ’s quarterly report released on January 9 highlighted that labor shortages and minimum wage increases are progressively spreading the importance of wage growth across businesses of all sizes and industries. This suggests that the BOJ may already see sustained wage growth potential ahead of March. Overall, The BOJ faces a difficult choice: raising rates earlier could help temper inflation and guide it toward moderate growth, but with wage increases still uncertain, it risks further pressuring already weak consumption. On the other hand, delaying rate hikes could allow inflation to rise further, eroding consumers’ wage gains and real purchasing power. These conflicting factors create significant uncertainty over whether the BOJ will opt for a rate hike in January or March. Read more at Datatrack

By simonhsu