According to the latest data from DataTrack, in the third quarter of 2025 (September 30), Dell's domestic server shipments in China recorded only 32,500 units (32.5 K pcs), a slight decline of 1.5% from the previous quarter's 33,000 units, but a staggering drop of 39.8% compared to the 54,000 units in the same period last year. Looking back at history, between 2017 and 2019, Dell's single-quarter shipments frequently exceeded the 1 million unit mark; today's figures are less than 30% of its peak period, indicating that its influence in the Chinese market has suffered a structural collapse.
Observing detailed trends, this marks the fifth consecutive quarter that Dell's shipments have remained below the 60,000 unit level, with no sign of the decline stopping. Since the beginning of 2024, single-quarter shipments have slid all the way from 55,500 units to the current 32,500 units. In contrast, reports from institutions such as IDC and Canalys indicate that the overall server market in China is still growing, driven by demand for AI computing power. In particular, demand for servers equipped with domestic AI chips (such as Huawei's Ascend series) remains strong, indicating that Dell's decline is not due to market shrinkage, but rather a significant loss of market share to competitors.
Analysts generally believe that the deep cause of this collapse is attributed to "two-way decoupling." On one hand, Dell's CEO explicitly announced a supply chain "de-Sinicization" roadmap, planning to phase out chips and components made in China between 2026 and 2027, a move that triggered backlash in the Chinese market. On the other hand, the Chinese government is vigorously promoting the "Xinchuang" (Information Technology Application Innovation) policy, requiring state-owned enterprises and government agencies to prioritize the procurement of local brands. According to market research, Huawei, Inspur, and Lenovo have filled the market void left by Dell, becoming the primary beneficiaries.
Looking at the short term (1-2 months), as Dell's supply chain relocation plan continues to advance, its shipments in China are expected to consolidate at a low level of around 30,000 units, potentially probing even lower depths. In the medium term (3-6 months), as China's domestic AI server ecosystem matures, unless Dell undergoes a major strategic shift, it is feared that the company will gradually become marginalized. It may only retain a niche market serving the branches of a few multinational corporations in China, making it difficult to return to the ranks of mainstream suppliers.
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