IBM Server Shipment Forecast Plummets to 65,000 Units, Establish

Lenovo Server Shipment Forecast Drops to 170K Units in Q3 2026,

Core Overview: Shipment Volumes Face Correction, Quarterly Decline Widens According to the latest DataTrack data, Lenovo server shipments are expected to drop to 170.0 K pcs in the third quarter (September) of 2026, representing a 12.8% QoQ decline compared to 195.0 K pcs in the second quarter. This marks the first time shipment scale has fallen below the 180 K pcs threshold in a single quarter since early 2024. Although demand for AI infrastructure remains robust, physical shipment data indicates that momentum is rapidly converging from the peak period of 2025, suggesting that supply chain bottlenecks or inventory adjustment pressures are emerging. Key Details: Moving Away from Historical Highs, Returning to Fundamentals Observing the long-term data series, Lenovo shipments reached a historical high of 250.0 K pcs in the second quarter of 2025, followed by a downward trend for four consecutive quarters (250K -> 220K -> 205K -> 202K -> 195K -> 170K). The current forecast of 170 K pcs represents a sharp 32% decrease from the peak, indicating that the explosive growth driven by the replacement cycle and initial build-outs by Hyperscalers has come to an end, with the market gradually returning to normal replacement demand. Deep Attribution: Memory "Super Cycle" and Strategic Transformation Market analysis points out that the global server industry in 2026 is facing a severe "Memory Wall" challenge. Reports from TrendForce and Goldman Sachs both mention that as HBM and high-end DDR5 capacity are monopolized by AI servers, general-purpose servers are facing component shortages and soaring costs. Although Lenovo ISG maintains double-digit revenue growth due to the high Average Selling Price (ASP) of AI servers (e.g., Q3 FY25 revenue increased 59% YoY), limited by shortages of critical materials, it has been forced to sacrifice shipments of low-margin low-end models, leading to a decline in overall "unit count." Outlook and Risks: Short-term Support Remains, Mid-term Supply Tightening Short-term (1-2 months): Shipment estimates for the first half of 2026 remain at a relatively high level of 195 K - 202 K pcs, indicating that existing enterprise orders can still support a certain shipment scale before the supply chain tightens completely. Mid-term (3-6 months): Entering the second half of 2026, with shipment forecasts falling to 170 K pcs, close attention must be paid to whether memory price hikes suppress end-terminal procurement willingness. If supply chain constraints persist, Lenovo may further concentrate resources on high-unit-price Liquid Cooling (Neptune) and AI servers, causing shipment volumes to remain under pressure while revenue remains robust. Web Search References https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEgJJnvPfJ0g7KyGlsOKrYXdv6ZYf_-GKt0SatC7HE6rh20FV76sb5tdA6GagGnzCyh9wOcZB4SQfxroofFEERNvgZroL_qnXlYWL9r8KwMN-QLF0fUNrCVJO3ifbYCJxPcIvrBC0ECs4i-xRMmkS6RYbXQ4cRpDpEspfM4fsAU2b_7RvKoEk0VWYlV0kisej5FiFx0CMU0TX3t8Rlb8vO-VQ== https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGGkCEU_FU5R76QY2LbSVfkt5rg76Jdh6HOSvKzN3BXLL1l5zXyzboSfonK08QTz6hWeFaAkq9Q4NUCnAFnOc2Me1ELdy5DHyZdgymPe21aSpAv01KHtGCzuB_usmcfItniSbp_5Dot24k= https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFin6V_E9jh_sv2DTMp32ZLiWjQbYhPHJb0hnQmyF9QlIzIy3UyFYwcJcSU142rNps-Azx1au9jOd0R-NEl44TtSEyNAbRvdlEc02ntsu3t_pfVsIVTFCYq17s5QmgPy1Y7_w==