Seasonal Correction! ZTE Server Q3 Estimated Shipments at 43,000

Sugon Server Shipments Surge to 68k Unit Peak in Q1 2026, Season

Core Overview: Q1 Shipments Surge, Momentum Concentrated in First Half According to the latest DataTrack forecast data, Sugon (including Nettrix) server shipments for Q1 2026 are expected to reach 68,000 units (68.0 K pcs), a significant rebound from the 60,000 units in Q4 2025, and leveling with the peak in Q1 2025. This indicates that driven by the release of annual government and enterprise budgets, the company will experience strong procurement momentum in early 2026. However, the data also reveals a trend of "high start, low finish"; the latest forecast for Q3 2026 has dropped to 50,000 units, a downward revision of approximately 18% compared to the previous quarter (61,000 units). Key Details: Severe Seasonal Fluctuations, Volume Hitting a Ceiling Observing the long-term series, Sugon's shipment performance presents highly regular seasonality. The forecast of 50,000 units for Q3 2026 represents not only a decline of over 26% from the Q1 peak but is also completely flat compared to the same period in 2025 (50.0 K pcs). This implies that despite the market's thirst for AI servers, Sugon has not shown significant year-over-year growth in overall "shipment units" (YoY Flat), suggesting that growth momentum may primarily stem from Average Selling Price (ASP) increases rather than scale expansion, or is constrained by shortages of specific chips. Deep Attribution: The Dual Tussle of AI Transformation and Supply Chain Market analysis points out that Nettrix, as a leading vendor in China's GPU server market share, is benefiting from the AI computing power arms race among US and Chinese Cloud Service Providers (CSPs). TrendForce and IDC reports both mention that the year-over-year growth rate of AI server shipments in 2026 is expected to exceed 20%. However, the lack of a major breakthrough in Sugon's overall shipment volume may be attributed to the crowding out of demand for General Purpose Servers, as well as continued restrictions on the high-end supply chain due to the US Entity List. This forces vendors to concentrate resources on high-unit-price domestic localization or AI projects, making it difficult for total volume to explode. Outlook and Risks: Short-term Bullish, Long-term Bearish; Watch for Q3 Correction Pressure Looking at the short term (1-2 months), with project deliveries and budget execution in early 2026, Q1 revenue and shipment momentum will remain at high levels, serving as the operational highlight of the year. However, entering the medium term (3-6 months), investors must be alert to the risk of seasonal pullback after the second quarter. If national-level projects such as "Eastern Data, Western Computing" fail to fill the demand gap in the second half, or if AI chip supplies remain tight, Q3 shipments may retest the 50,000-unit defense line as predicted. Close attention must be paid to supply chain inventory depletion status. Web Search References: https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEylCrOw_k9a_4inPOyZPLesT5O5vv23yOfFYDcjtTrDcxhnCSM3C_csRapCje-W27i6LOp-Ikmd4HB-GAbQFlDqD_GwCHE0eVtH_C2biAmIqJVkdgQE6G1_aPnnt6_SG7oTU9aIDQ715zaEAno3Geliy9ispcEzPeICA== https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHC91JQcZ_TXCuXyQxiK5ganWviYEPyQfEAC1U-Oe47kSajw5PtHx6VSHf3TiKnkSFiKLgtdwVLKCqRIubc4yzRpXgXpi4Uol1CLDYJrSPXIEIb1t2mT-4Hyn3zo2ak4Zd160GUZqTCraMZ7qUjMp6j7iCOLCE8 https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQE4UeIV0JU2fkG6nYX1VbaAz2MPc5y2ArdvUDgMedSCGJBIDcLhIxzPuHqRfEm4fij_OFfObAwBJaJ6q5yJykJfQet1WhTSde9mZBkWmwhKTaH0NuKV9JkAZhFHjAxguh4bVP-SLpbN7XqmXgiR6i5o7g==