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ODM Direct Server Shipment Forecast: Q3 Declines to 1.767 Millio

By AI Insights

2026-01-16

Trend analysis based on the updated indicator. View the Indicator→

According to the latest forecast data released by DataTrack, global ODM Direct (white-box) server shipments in the third quarter of 2026 are expected to be 1.767 million units, a decline of approximately 5.9% from the 1.877 million units in the second quarter. Data shows that since shipment volumes hit a historical peak of 2.167 million units in the fourth quarter of 2025, market momentum has slowed for three consecutive quarters, with a cumulative correction magnitude approaching 20%. Despite the weak quarterly growth rate, the year-on-year growth rate remains at the 11% level compared to the 1.592 million units in the same period of 2025, indicating that AI infrastructure has elevated the overall market baseline, although the short-term explosive power has temporarily paused.

Detailed data presents distinct cyclical characteristics: the peak at the end of 2025 primarily benefited from concentrated procurement and rush construction by CSPs (Cloud Service Providers) for the Nvidia Blackwell (GB300) generation. However, entering 2026, the data has slid continuously from 2.071 million units in the first quarter to 1.767 million units in the third quarter. This reflects that hardware construction for hyperscale data centers is not linear growth but presents "pulse-style" procurement; the supply chain is currently in a stage of inventory digestion and architecture evaluation following the previous wave of aggressive expansion.

Regarding this pullback, market intelligence and analysis institutions generally attribute it to the "transition period between new and old platforms." According to sources such as Digitimes and TrendForce, 2026 is viewed as a transition year between the Nvidia GB300 and the next-generation Vera Rubin (VR200) architectures. Although capital expenditure budgets for CSP operators such as Google and Microsoft are still estimated to be as high as the US$500 billion level, the pace of hardware procurement has significantly slowed during the window period before the formal mass production of the new generation of chips. Part of the funds has shifted towards in-house ASIC development or the optimization of existing computing power, leading ODM shipments to adopt a low profile in mid-2026.

Looking ahead, the short-term (1-2 months) risk lies in the lack of clarity regarding demand visibility for the second half of 2026; if the launch schedule of new platforms is slightly delayed, Q4 shipments may continue to consolidate at low levels, and the supply chain must monitor pressure from declining capacity utilization rates. In the medium term (3-6 months), as the new architectures are expected to formally ramp up volume in 2027, coupled with the replacement cycle for General Purpose Servers expected to significantly rebound in 2027, the market is generally optimistic that another high-growth cycle will be welcomed at that time. The correction in 2026 can be viewed as a healthy adjustment under a long-term bullish trend.

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