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According to the latest data from DataTrack, the EU Consumer Price Index (CPI) MoM rate for November 2025 recorded 0.1%, successfully reversing the negative growth trend of -0.2% in October. This data shift indicates that while overall inflationary pressure in the Eurozone is easing, it has not fallen into a persistent deflationary spiral. Compared to the same period last year, the market widely estimates that the year-on-year (YoY) rate will remain in a moderate range of around 2.1%, providing the ECB with room to balance "fighting inflation" and "protecting growth."
Observing the data trajectory for the second half of 2025, the CPI MoM rate presents a clear range-bound oscillation trend (July 0.2%, August 0.1%, September 0.2%, October -0.2%, November 0.1%). This "capped upside, supported downside" pattern reflects that while terminal demand is weak, it has not completely collapsed. It is particularly noteworthy that the turn to positive territory in November benefited mainly from the stabilization of non-energy industrial goods prices, which offset part of the drag from falling energy prices, indicating that the core inflation structure remains solid.
Regarding the driving factors for this data, market analysis points to the tug-of-war between "services stickiness" and "energy base effects" as the main cause. According to analysis by AInvest and Trading Economics, although energy prices continued to slide in November due to weak global oil prices, Services Inflation remained at a high level of around 3.4%, becoming a key force supporting the CPI from turning significantly negative. In addition, the lagging effect of slowing wage growth has also begun to appear in the data, further confirming the long-term trend of cooling inflation.
Looking ahead, inflation still faces downward pressure in the short term (1-2 months). The market preliminarily estimates that December data may fall back to 0% or even negative values again due to further declines in energy prices, with the YoY rate expected to drop below the 2% target threshold (e.g., AInvest notes it could drop to 1.9% in December). In the medium term (3-6 months), as new annual contracts take effect in 2026, price adjustments in the services sector will be a key observation point; if the ECB maintains interest rates at around 2.0% in 2026 as expected and cuts rates based on incoming data, the Eurozone economy is expected to achieve a moderate recovery in a low-inflation environment.
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